‘Serious’ Apple Intelligence performance won’t arrive until 2026 or 2027, says analyst

It’s no secret that the Apple Intelligence rollout is a gradual one. The first six features are expected to launch at the end of this month, and we’re not anticipating the new version of Siri to properly debut until some point next year.

But one analyst thinks we should temper our expectations further, and that iPhones aren’t going to offer “serious” AI performance until 2026 or 2027 …

There had been talk of Apple Intelligence driving a supercycle of iPhone 16 purchases because anyone other than iPhone 15 Pro owners would need to upgrade to get access to the new features. However, so far the available indicators suggest that this year’s iPhone sales are roughly on a par with last year, meaning people aren’t yet seeing AI as a significant draw.

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee isn’t surprised by this. The Street reports him saying that expectations of 5-10% growth in iPhone sales are “unlikely to be met.”

He does see Apple as having a key advantage in AI over other smartphone brands, but thinks it will be 2-3 years before that materially drives demand for new iPhone models.

“We like Apple Intelligence long term, as Apple is the only hardware-software integrated player that can leverage proprietary data to offer low-cost, personalized AI services,” Lee said. “However, smartphone hardware needs rework before being capable of serious AI, likely by 2026/27.”

Still, Lee argues that Apple has a longer-term advantage in terms of tech and cost development over its Android-based competitors, particularly given its partnership with chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor

He does expect Apple to enjoy iPhone growth next year, but attributes that more to the rumored slimmer iPhone 17 Air than to Apple Intelligence.

“We believe AI-capable smartphone tech is likely 2-3 years away due to limitations in high-speed memory and advanced packaging tech,” he said. “[But] Apple’s thin model (17 Air) in 2025 could attract more upgrade demand.”

Graphic: Apple and Michael Bower/9to5Mac