Kuo: iPhone 16 sales demand expected to be mostly flat compared to iPhone 15

Supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo this morning posted his latest estimates for iPhone 16 shipments, ahead of Apple’s event later today where the new iPhone 16 lineup will be finally unveiled.

Kuo expects iPhone 16 shipments for 2024 to be about 89 million units, down slightly from the 91 million units of the iPhone 15 shipped in the same period last year. As Apple tries to order what it will sell, this indicates that the company is not anticipating a huge jump in customer demand for the new phones.

iPhone 16 shipments will be a bit more front-loaded compared to the iPhone 15, with more units delivered in August/September than last year. Rather than representing a demand-driven boost, this is merely because the 5x zoom lens had lower yields initially when it was introduced for the Pro Max in 2023.

Counting the totals of all models, Kuo says Apple will be preparing 15-17 million phones for the preorder launch period.

In terms of mix, the iPhone 16 Pro Max will be the most popular model, with 38% share of shipments. The second most popular model is the iPhone 16 Pro, with 30% share. The base model iPhone 16 comes in third with 26%, and the iPhone 16 Plus trails significantly with just 6% share.