Kuo: Apple’s 5G modems to ‘grow rapidly’ in coming years to replace Qualcomm

Apple’s years-long effort to replace Qualcomm’s 5G modems with its own chips is nearing an end. Previously, Ming-Chi Kuo has indicated Apple’s first in-house 5G modems will debut in select 2025 iPhones. Today, he shares his expectation for Apple’s expansion plans in the years ahead.

In-house 5G chip will start small, then quickly expand

In a new post on X, Kuo outlines a rapid growth plan for Apple’s 5G modems that would start small next year, but increase significantly in 2026 and 2027.

He writes:

My latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple’s in-house 5G chip shipments will grow rapidly and replace Qualcomm’s 5G chips. It’s estimated that Apple’s in-house 5G chip shipments will reach 35-40 million units in 2025, 90-110 million in 2026, and 160-180 million in 2027. This trend will significantly impact Qualcomm’s 5G chip shipments and licensing sales.

The 35-40 million units for 2025 are expected to be limited to just a couple of iPhone models:

• the iPhone SE 4 (due in the spring)
• the ultra-slim iPhone 17 Air (expected in the fall)

Both of these new iPhone models seem especially compelling, which makes the 35-40 million estimate seem perhaps on the low side.

The iPhone SE 4 will gain an edge-to-edge OLED display, an Apple Intelligence-compatible chip, USB-C, and more. All of this at a compellingly low price point.

The iPhone 17 Air is expected to include some compromises that keep it from being the ‘best’ iPhone. By specs at least, that honor will remain with the 17 Pro and Pro Max. But the futuristic, ultra-thin model still seems set to find a lot of popularity.

The numbers themselves may end up being wildly off, but the important thing from this report is the trend. If all goes well with Apple’s in-house 5G modem, it seems the company will move quickly to include that new chip in as many iPhones and iPads as possible moving forward. Who knows, maybe we’ll even get the first cellular Macs?

Does Apple’s in-house 5G modem interest you at all? Do you expect it will be an improvement over Qualcomm’s offering? Let us know in the comments.