Kuo: Apple may not increase iPhone 16 orders after all

Apple and its various suppliers are busy prepping the iPhone 16 for its fall debut. But despite recent reporting that Apple was planning for a big increase in its 2024 iPhone shipments, today Ming-Chi Kuo has cast doubt on those claims.

No evidence of big iPhone 16 order increase

Ming-Chi Kuo writes on Medium:

Although there have been rumors of increased orders for iPhone 16 orders from time to time after WWDC, recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers (TSMC and Largan) have hinted that the iPhone 16 orders may not have increased.

• TSMC: We did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased.
• Largan: Orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year.

My understanding is that some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for 2H24, but from the EMS/assembly perspective, the iPhone 16 orders for 2H24 have not seen much change (about 87 million units), still slightly lower than the 2H23 iPhone 15 orders (about 91 million units).

It seems that Apple’s iPhone 16 expectations might be about in line with its iPhone 15 shipments last year—with no big increase as expected.

This is simply Kuo drawing a conclusion based on what these two Apple suppliers have reported, but it’s noteworthy data nonetheless. TSMC especially would have been impacted by the reported 10% increase in units ordered by Apple. So if it hasn’t seen a noteworthy change from original expectations, perhaps those prior reports have been incorrect.

Largan’s statement doesn’t quite carry as much weight to it, as it appears focused solely on the high-end Pro models. Even if the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max are expected to sell in similar quantities to last year’s Pro models, that still leaves room for an expected boost in the base iPhone 16.

iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence features

As we have reported previously, the entire iPhone 16 lineup is expected to receive the new A18 chip. This will be a key marketing pitch for users interested in Apple Intelligence features, since last year’s base iPhone 15 won’t support AI.

A powerful new chip with Apple Intelligence support could still prove a compelling reason to upgrade for many customers, especially if they can do so with the lower-priced iPhone 16.

The fall will be here soon, so we won’t have to wait too long to see what Apple has in store.