It may be time to start accepting that the US TikTok ban is actually going to happen

Edgar Cervantes / Android Authority

In just a little over a week, one of the most popular apps the world has ever seen faces being cut off from a huge portion of its user base, as the US TikTok ban threatens to take effect on January 19. Considering the app’s widespread appeal, we wouldn’t blame you for feeling like this ban’s never going to happen — after all, politicians have been threatening to kick TikTok out of US app stores over concerns of China’s involvement for more than four years now, and so far the app’s been just as available as ever. With that deadline now visible on the horizon, TikTok’s looking like it’s in real trouble.

Efforts to ban TikTok really kicked into high gear last spring, as US politicians in the House of Representatives passed a bill requiring TikTok parent ByteDance to either sell the app to another company or face a ban in America. While that bill fell apart in the Senate, a second effort succeeded and became law in late April. That legislation defined the timeline that’s just about to run out, giving ByteDance until January 19 to comply.

With a sale not looking likely, the best and last chance ByteDance has may be with the Supreme Court, and earlier this week the company’s lawyers presented their case before the justices. According to reporting from Bloomberg, however, the court does not appear to have responded too favorably to ByteDance’s arguments.

The company’s lawyers told the court that China’s influence is not a meaningful factor in how TikTok operates, and that a ban would effectively limit the free speech rights of Americans. While the questions some justices posed during the hearing suggested varying degrees of sympathy, the overall atmosphere has been reported as more and more negative, and Bloomberg’s analysis has lowered its odds of TikTok avoiding the ban from 30% to 20%.

In theory, the app could still be useable in a limited form following the ban, but US companies would be forbidden from supporting TikTok, including hosting it in app stores. Right now, even some kind of limited existence feels increasingly unlikely, though, with company lawyers indicating TikTok will “go dark” should the ban come to pass.

That said, this story is still not over, and even if the court doesn’t outright reject the ban, ByteDance could enjoy a stay that would allow TikTok to continue operating temporarily while further measures are considered. One way or another, we’ll find out what’s happening in just a few more days.

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