An Apple television seems even less likely now than it did in 2011

Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has resurrected the idea of an Apple television, albeit couching this in the most uncertain of terms.

[The company] may even revisit the idea of making an Apple-branded TV set, something it’s evaluating. 

Long-time readers may recall that rumors about this date back to at least 2011 …

Then-Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster long insisted an Apple television was not only in the works, but about to be launched.

We’ve been tracking Munster’s predictions that Apple would launch a television set either “this year” or “within a year” since early 2011, with repeats later that year, early 2012, late 2012, early 2013, a bit later in 2013 and – slightly more cautiously – late 2014. I’ve probably missed a few.

He finally changed his mind in 2015.

It didn’t make too much sense even in the early days, though he and a few others were so insistent it was happening that we had to wonder what Apple might bring to the party.

Large-screen, high-spec TVs are a commodity these days

But as tough as it was then to see an argument in favor, it’s even harder now to see how this could make sense today. TVs are mostly commodities these days.

Take a look at the best-selling TV sets at Best Buy right now …

Number one is the 65-inch Sony Bravia 3 LED 4K, with HDR, Dolby Vision, Dolby Atmos, 4K upscaling from HD content, a whole bunch of image-processing tech for everything from movies to games, and built-in Google Assistant. It costs $650.

Next is a 75-inch Samsung model, with 4K resolution, HDR, upscaling, motion-processing, color-processing and more. $550.

Third in line is a 50-inch Samsung with otherwise very similar specs. $250.

Of course, the fact that there are cheaper models around has never deterred Apple from anything, but in the other product categories in which the company operates there are substantial spec differences between Apple products and low-end ones. In TV, you can get really impressive specs in really large sizes for sums that would make zero sense for Apple.

It’s not impossible for Apple; but hard to see a reason

Sure, there are still high-end models. Indeed, Samsung will sell you a 114-inch microLED model for a cool $150,000 as a special order, and it has a $20k 85-inch model which is more-or-less available off the shelf.

But the reality is that almost anyone who wants a high-spec TV can buy one for under a thousand bucks, and the brands selling them are making pennies on most models. Televisions are a very low-margin business.

It’s not that it would be impossible for Apple to launch a high-priced TV in very pretty casing at its usual 37%-ish margin. It could make a move on Bang & Olufsen territory. But it would, I strongly suspect, be selling premium TVs in even smaller volumes than Vision Pro.

Vision Pro makes sense for Apple not because it’s making money for the company today but because it gets the company a toe-hold in an emerging market with the potential for a huge future upside. That potential may be realized in three years, in five, or ten – it’s hard to say. But it’s not unreasonable for Apple to hold the view that it will take off at some point, and that it is establishing a stake in readiness for whenever that time comes.

An Apple television, in contrast, has no long-term potential for dramatic future growth.

I’m betting this will never happen

Admittedly I’m the wrong person to ask – I haven’t owned a television for well over 20 years. But if I were to buy one, I’d want the closest thing I could find to a dumb screen (more realistically a smart TV whose apps I would never use) and an Apple TV box.

That’s the model Apple has adopted for years now. Buy any television you like, and pay $129 or $149 to turn it into an Apple one. When the smarts get outdated, instead of replacing your entire screen, just buy another cheap Apple box.

I don’t expect that model to change – how about you? Please take our poll, and share your thoughts in the comments.

Photo: Samsung